AdrianF wrote:Jim's notebook and timings are an anomaly which only he can answer.
Of course, Adrian, I fully agree. It’s just that I recently re-read the witness statements for a reply to Ignis and that got me speculating and playing a bit with the timeline. I’m just posting some pieces here hoping that new clues will surface. But ultimately the witnesses themselves are the proper people to solve this, no question about that.
AdrianF wrote:A best guess at the start time of this investigation, is somewhere between 2.30 and 3.10 am and I see no reason to challenge the established 2.50 am
Well, maybe there
are reasons to challenge that .. To speculate a bit further:
It appears there are two basic ways to approach the ‘notebook issue’.
A - Jim’s notebook is a genuine document made during the events. This makes Jim’s notebook part of the set of ‘official’ documents, along with the witness statements, Halt’s memo, and the Suffolk police log.
B - The entries in Jim’s notebook were created (much?) later, and he made mistakes in the date and time of the events.
Option A leaves the following deviations:
1 - Why did Jim get the date wrong?
2 - Why do the response notes in Jim’s notebook start at 00:50, while the documents of Burroughs, Chandler, and Buran (plus Halt’s memo) mention approximately 03:00 as the time when Burroughs and Steffens first saw the lights?
3 - Why did Jim note 02:45 as the time of the take-off while the events only started at approximately 03:00 according to the other documents?
Getting the date wrong is a common mistake around midnight, certianly if you are under stress (a possible aircraft crash is not exactly a trivial matter..). So the first deviation can be an understandable mistake under the circumstances.
The second deviation seems more difficult at first sight, because four documents mention another starting time than Jim’s notebook, so it seems to be ‘4 to 1’. However, it is striking that all four documents
exactly agree in this respect - they all state the events started at 03:00 - yet all of them also state this is an
approximation. Why are all approximations exactly the same? A probable reason for that is a common source. This leaves just a ‘1 to 1’ situation: One common source for an approximate starting time - probably as it was remembered several days later - versus the starting time in Jim’s notebook that was written down at the spot. Which is more likely to be right?
(A related thought that crossed my mind about that: If the events started already at 00:50 it was a little embarrassing that more than three hours had passed before the Suffolk police was warned, and all this time US military men had been chasing an unknown object on British territory (possibly including a period of lost radio contact). So maybe there was a ‘slight preference’ for an estimated starting time that was late in the night, to avoid an embarrassing situation with the British authorities.)
The third deviation may not be a deviation at all if Jim’s starting time was correct. Yet it may also have been caused by EM fields emitted by the object that interfered with Jim’s watch. This is a real and known physical effect acting on the electronics and miniature electronic motors inside a watch. After all, Jim stated in his last interview that his watch was 45 minutes behind after the incident.
If these kinds of explanations sound too farfetched, there is always option B. But this leaves the following questions to be answered:
1 - Why does Jim tell he made his notebook at the spot while in reality he made it (much?) later?
2 - Why did he make his notes appear as if they were written under great stress and difficult circumstances, i.e., why did he make them
look as if they were made at the spot?
3 - If he fabricated the notebook for his public performances, why did he copy the (wrong) date but did not copy the (correct) time from Halt’s memo? There was plenty of time for that because many years have passed between the publication of Halt’s memo and the first time Jim’s notebook entered the public domain (the witness statements came later).
4. If he fabricated the notebook for his public performances, why did he put dates and times in there anyway? They can only lead to exposure and do not add anything to the story. Being a trained member of the military police, Jim should have known that.
In other words: Why did he fabricate false evidence and why did he do such a bad job?
• Fame and glory? He already was the most senior officer and most prominent witness to the events, so there was no need for the notebook to get himself into the picture.
• Money? If he wanted to make money with books and films he already could have done so. He could have made even more money by saving his revelations for his books and films instead of giving away the full story in his first public interview.
• Exaggeration? He is described (and comes across) as a sober minded and mature individual that was very reluctant to tell the full story to his superiors, so in his character there is no tendency to exaggerate things at all.
• Credibility? His notebook only
undermined his credibility. It would have been much easier to stick with the story in Halt’s memo – that story is already fascinating enough to get all the attention and credibility he would like.
So what is his motive? I have a hard time seeing him sitting in some corner years later fabricating notes as if they were scribbled under ever increasing stress, without any logical motive.
These considerations leave A as the most probable option: Jim’s notebook is as he tells it is – a genuine piece of evidence made at the spot to be treated as one of the official documents. And that leads to the starting time in Jim’s notebook being the most probable starting point to reconstruct a timeline.