I doubt we will ever know the truth

[puddlepirate]

Much of the Chevaline testing seems to have been undertaken in the early / mid 1970's. There's stack of stuff at the National Archive: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/sear ... =chevaline

(If the link doesn't work just type 'chevaline' in the search box at http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk)

The aircraft borne version was bigger than the Polaris version, apparently. The kit was moved by road via various routes, to RND Coalport for deployment via SSBNs working out of HMS Neptune at Faslane. The trucks were sometimes involved in RTA's, suffered vehicle malfunctions etc....not sure why Chevaline would be wanging about, independent of the missile body, over Rendlesham forest in the early morning on the day after Boxing Day. By 1980 it was getting to be old kit and as such, would tests still be carried out on it at Orfordness? Also, assuming it was Chevaline, then who would be controlling / operating it to manouevre it through the forest - and from where?

One answer might be that it was the bigger aircraft version, was loaded under an aircraft that happened to be overflying the forest and simply fell off.....oops, don't panic men!

I can see it now - phone rings in officer's mess: "Ah...is that Lt Col Halt? Sorry to disturb old man, one of your RAF chums here. Name isn't too important just now....but look here old chap, thing is, we've got a bit of a snag. Wonder if you could help us out, that sort of thing. .....What sort of snag? Ah..Fact is, we've had a bit of prang with one of our kites...bit of a nuisance really, somewhat embarrassing. Egg on face and so on. Maggie's doing a wall of death, of course.....any chance some of your chaps could pop their heads into the forest and have a quick recce?. What are they to look for? Oh, nothing much really just the odd warhead...can't miss it. Festooned with lights, emits a bit of a pong...Oh, by the way, if it starts to dance around a bit then I suggest your chaps leg it, pronto...You will? I say, good show. Many thanks. Out."

There's a good image of Chevaline here: http://www.century20war.co.uk/page11.html

[Observer]

Puddle
I love the last bit where you paint the senario, its a possibility but very doubtful.
Agreed that the Chevaline program was almost at an end but Trident was an overlap development which was very similar in its systems and PAC design, it was also larger to incorperate more than 2 war heads.
Just a short note on Chevaline. It was a solely British system designed and manufactured in the UK but only for RN Polaris systems. Although the US had moved on to Posidon, the British government considered it not much better for the money than the Chevaline version of Polaris. Trident was on the horizon and looked like a big leap in performance over Polaris so we joined in with that but still maintaining our independant war head designs. This is just a basic resume of the programm which is only to explain in very simple terms the ethos behind our nuclear weapon programms. One of the most important reasons was so we maintained our own R+D expertise rather than buying off the shelf.

There is no info on this on the web as its a current system. Probably now in its Mk 'whatever' version since the 80's. The only info we have is that it is in current use with the RN and has more war heads than Polaris.
The only info i had on the war heads was given to me when i was in the Corps and that is they were variable in their yield. Some could be in the very high Kiloton range i.e. 200 KT and some could be in the 2 - 5 Megaton range. Hiroshima was 20 KT which should give you some perspective on the difference in power.
I don't think we need to know the ins and outs of these systems as it will end up fruitless and will waste good energy which could be better spent.
Puddle this is my puny attempt to move us on with another theory. I chose this specifically as it seems to tick more boxes than previous theories. Its probably all bollocks, but then why not.

Obs

[Observer]

Adrian
I have no idea if the Trident war heads were tested on the Ness. Perhaps this could be a line of enquiry.
Even if they were still doesn't explain how it got in the woods although puddle wrote a very humerous senario. Many a true word spoken in jest as they say.
Obs

[puddlepirate]

Joking aside, I really believe this has some substance to it. From memory I think this particular theory was raised before. Not sure why it fizzled out.

The question remains how did it get into the forest and the only way I can think of is that it did indeed drop off an aircraft (Chevaline was fitted in wing mounted missiles/weaons on some aircraft or so I believe).

There are three elements to the RFI. Two we are well aware of and one we know nothing about, viz (1) Penniston, Burroughs and Cabansag - lots of info that we know about; (2) Halt and co, including Larry W - also lots of information that we know about (3) everyone else in the forest, the road block, damage to runway lights etc - we know nothing about what some 70 to 80 other personnel were up to. Therein lies the key - what were all these people doing. What was the C5 brought in for? Why did it have its own security? Who was filming what? What was taken away from the forest etc etc.. Lots of unanswered questions that sit outside the familiar witness comfort zone.

One theory I've held since the very beginning and I went through DMU, Pave Penny and a host of other stuff, is that something occurred that involved a classified weapon of some kind and because the RFI was of 'no defence signifigance' the powers that be knew exactly what it was.

Chevaline does indeed tick many boxes and losing a Chev fitted weapon would be a very good reason for the alleged alert at HMP Hollesley Bay. It would also require a diversion and circumspect handling by specialist recovery teams. Suffolk CC were a tad shy about revealing if any emergency plan had been activated in Dec 1980 but they did give me several references for more info held in their archive. Ditto MoD. Time to take a look methinks....

My enquiry to MoD related to an accident involving an RAF aircraft, fitted with Pave (two flavours) being involved in an accident during an exercise with the USAF but no exercises were live over the Christmas holiday (not surprisingly) - but it is known that aircraft were being flown to forward bases in Germany (e.g. A10's) so there is a very strong possibility that this also involves an aircraft - not one that came down but something that fell off.

And given the propensity for the RAF to drop things (ref the incident only recently with the practice bomb) then very likely it fell off one of ours.

And after all, you can hardly tell the people that Biggles, Ginge, Algy and the rest of the gang are losing nukes all over the place! That wouldn't do at all....

If we are to pursue this one, can I ask that we stay with it and hold back (I'm as guilty as anyone else) on proposing other theories until this one has been thoroughly investigated and by that I mean we look at the facts such as they are and be guided by them towards other information. Tempting though it undoubtedly is, we must let the facts guide us and not try to make the facts fit Chevaline......this looks good but we must be careful not to get carried away.

We need to prove that Chevaline was in use in missiles in 1980
If so, what type(s) of weapons
Were these weapons being tested on the 'ness
How were these weapons deployed
How were they moved from a to b
Was there ever a need to bring them into the twin bases - e.g. the WSA
RCA were doing work on the 'ness - did that work involve Chevaline
If so, was Chevaline ever transported to/from the WSA / 'ness using helos
Were Chev weapons deployed in aircraft
Did any accidents involving Polaris or air equivalents occur in Dec 1980
If so, what/where/when
What was the search/recovery procedure for finding such weapons should they become lost
etc etc....

Sorry if I'm soundling like a pompous 'know it all' ass but I think this one has something going for it and I really would like to start at one end and work to the other instead of the thing suddenly charging off in different directions.

[puddlepirate]

As if my last post wasn't long enough I forgot to add...

You might laugh at this one but it is/was widely rumoured that BBC's Radio Four still carries cryptic messages in regular bulletins. "The moon shines brightly over Kabul tonight" type stuff. Totally meaningless to anyone except the intended recipient.

Now, what if Halt's memo isn't quite what it seems.....what if - and I accept that this is a big what if - it was intended to communicate all was well. The radiation readings were found to be insignifigant. Nothing was found etc. The search/recovery/clean up might have taken two weeks to complete. To totally avoid any phone taps, cct intercepts etc why not simply send a plain text memo that appears to be completely innocuous.....after all, it went to the RAF, not Halt's command and that has always been a puzzle as has the delay in sending it and the manner in which it was released.

[Observer]

puddle the whole damn thing is fishy.
I brought the Chev theory up last year but if i remember correctly it was by PM to a couple of members and small mention was made on the forum.

Thanks for your support and i hope that we can progress with this.
The airborn version of the Chev war head would require an aircraft at least as big as a Vulcan or Victor to carry it. So that's possible. These two aircraft also carried the 'stand off' missiles called Blue Steel but i'm not sure if they had a Chev type war head, i don't think it did. Blue Steel was later replaced by Skybolt which was of US origin and definately not a Chev head. We need to check when the RAF were platforms for these systems.

Halt makes strong emphasis about the so called 'molten metal' falling off the object, This realy leads me to the pyrotechnic decoy systems that were fitted to the PAC Bus. It could dispense from several of its tubes a fire work display for want of a better description that was just like the old fire work called Vesuvious [sorry about the spelling] we remember from years ago. You put this fire work on a wall and it spewed out just like molten lava. It was all done with iron fillings in the pyro mixture.
I'm damn sure this is what Halt saw. This decoy system was to throw off Russian anti ICMB's
Also, the PAC unit ejected special balloons [not the rubber party types] from other tubes that were incandescant and were filled with a special gas. These balloons floated about at high altitude which were also designed to decoy Russian homing missiles.

Trident may have started its testing on the Ness at that time as it also had a Chev type war head.
Puddle, run with this but see if either the Ness was involved or as you said an aircraft was. Maybe even the RN?
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[puddlepirate]

Obs

No problem. It is a sound theory based on known technology and much of it maps to what was seen. I strongly propose that it be investigated to an evidence based conclusion, determined by fact not wild conjecture.

Some background info:

http://www.skomer.u-net.com/projects/chevaline.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevaline
http://www.banthebomb.org/archives/trisaf/ch2.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_we ... om#Polaris

Polaris was deployed from an SSBN platform operating in a submarine patrol area (SPA) across the Greenland, Iceland, UK (GIUK) gap. The North Sea is too shallow to allow SSBNs to operate without detection. SSBN's did not operate or even transit on the surface. Once they left the wall at Faslane, they went deep and stayed there for three months, surfacing only when they returned and even then, only at the latest possible moment. Ship/shore comms was usually rx only, tx was kept to an absolute minimum - usually only ZIDs and to meet comms check requirements. Missile test firings were undertaken at the Atlantic Underwater Test and Evaluation (AUTEC) facility off Florida. Therefore, the probability of Chevaline ending up in Rendlesham forest as the result of a failed/aborted test firing from an SSBN is very low. To discuss subops in open forum is an absolute no-no.

In 1982 I was on a comms course at the Signals Training Centre (STC) at HMS Drake, Plymouth. One evening myself and a few colleagues went to a pub, across the road from the RNB main gate. The pub was virtually empty apart from us and a couple of locals. Presently, a few more lads came in. They were off a boat and recognised us as being from the STC. We got chatting. An officer came in and a few moments later he came up to us and told us in no uncertain terms to "Shut the f**k up. Remember where you are". This is not a game, even 28yrs later it is not a game.

We have to be looking at airborne weapons and even then we must be cautious to post only publicly available information. My advice, for what it is worth, is that if we have friends 'in the know' whatever information they might offer must not be posted on here. If we get near the mark, then almost certainly our posts and our intentions will be monitored.

So, off we go and here's to good hunting!!

[Observer]

Puddle
When we write long winded posts and sometimes its necessary to get the message over [I'm just as guilty] it is often hard to respond to all the items mentioned. We tend to be selective in our responses which again i'm as guilty as the next person, but on this occasion i have been dliberately selective.
In your last but one post, your last paragraph to my mind is highly significant.
They are my exact thoughts and it has always puzzled me about the memo delay and all the other things that you point out. It was a stage managed exercise.

You may remember a long time ago that i said a lot of evidence is staring us in the face but we all chose to either ignore it or only give it a cursery glance. I think its coming back to bite us.

These are may latest thoughts on the witnesses.

Georgina told us what she could find out, god bless her.
Larry told us what he saw
Penniston and others told us what they thought they saw
Halt told us what he was told to tell us.
Jenny Randles switched sides

Now i know that we are both ex military and are aware of the consequences of idle chat, walls have ears and all that not to mention the OSA, but careful wording can be useful.

I think my next line of enquiry is to look at the various options that could be out there as to how this Chev unit got in the woods. Keep me posted.
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[puddlepirate]

Obs

I think looking at how Chevaline could have ended up in the forest is an excellent starting point.

1. We know that something came down through the trees and that whatever it was, was not very big but of sufficient weight to break branches on the way down. Thus, as it came from above, whatever it was must have been dropped from above the forest...but not from such a height as to totally destroy the object when it hit the ground. Therefore it should be possible to calculate a maximum drop altitude (allowing for the resistance offered by the branches). If my maths is correct then acceleration by gravity is 32ft/s2 with a terminal velocity achieved at about 240 ft/sec (from memory Newton's 2nd Law applies and air resistance come into play)....depends on mass etc etc.... If the trees were 100ft high and if the object were dropped from 50ft above the trees then it would have hit the ground after just two or three seconds max with a force of speed x weight. Enough to damage the object but not enough to completely destroy it. This suggests it was dropped from a low flying aircraft. We can make a reasonable guess at the speed of descent but do we know the weight of Chevaline?

2. For the internal components to be exposed and visible to those whose saw pipes and so forth, means that the object was probably stripped of at least some of its outer casing and given that the object was not very high, then it was not a complete missile. It also means that there should have been various bits of debris lying around.

3. If a vapour cloud was present and if we accept as a starting point that the object used hydrazine as a fuel, then fuel tank integrity was breached. Some research on the effects of hyrdazine on flora/fauna is needed. Someone has posted an interesting article on damage to a tree, a tree located near the landing site. From the internal damage to the trunk of the tree matched to the rings, it can be seen that the damage appears to have occured some years ago. The damage might be indicative of hydrazine contamination. If it can be proved this is indeed so, then we have proof that hyrdrazine was present at or very near to, the landing site.

4. First problem: If we accept the object was Chevaline and that it had to have been damaged on landing, then how was it able to ascend, move around etc. I believe Chevaline had internal circuitry to activate its various internal jet thrusters. Could it be that impact with the ground triggered these various devices - perhaps not immediately (because of damage) but after a short delay?

5. Second problem: there were, apparently, three objects - the one that Penniston and his colleagues saw, the one that Halt saw and the one that LW saw. Perhaps this can be argued by the fact that Burroughs and Halt only saw lights, they never said they saw a craft but that still leaves what Penniston and Larry W saw - on different nights and in different locations.

To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one nuke is unfortunate but to lose two is downright careless.....

[Observer]

Good thinking puddle
First of all i am doubtful it was dropped from a low flying aircraft as there would have been some horizontal movement, for example, if it was a C-130 flying at its slowest speed that ejected said object, that would have still been in the 100 MPH region. All known damage to trees etc was vertical damage. Its more likely it was dropped from a helicopter or it came down by parachute. I wonder if it was a test firing which they wanted to recover but it strayed off course, hence warnings to prisons etc.
There were 3 objects, 2 war heads and the PAC Bus. Combined the unit would be heavy. The war heads would weigh several thousand pounds each.
Was the domed shaped object which looked like it had tiles all over it part of the recovery canopy?
I think the scores of men in the forest were searching for any debris.
I am not at all surprised if the decoy systems were set off due to the impact. It certainly did not come down at great speed that's for sure as there was minimum local damage and no crater. In a way it almost looks like it was lowered in to the forest and quite gently.
Like the maths, keep digging
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[puddlepirate]

It appears that Chevaline enterd service n 1982 so was still under development in 1980:

Well before Polaris entered service in 1968, it was thought likely to be vulnerable to the anti-ballistic missile system in development by the Soviet Union. It was therefore decided to produce a countermeasure. The starting point was the American Antelope system, itself based on Polaris A3.

Over a decade and half, the British developed it into a capability for degrading the Soviet anti-ballistic missile system radar. This would have given attacking warheads the chance to penetrate this type of defence. The counter-measure became better known as ‘Chevaline’ and it entered service in 1982. By then, Trident had been selected as the next delivery system for the British deterrent.

Source: http://www.awe.co.uk/aboutus/Our_History_f77a4.aspx

Chevaline test launches were conducted in the US and Australia, e.g..

1979 - Launch Site: Woomera. Launch Complex: LA2. Launch Pad: LA2 HRV. Launch Vehicle: Falstaff. LV Configuration: Falstaff F.5.
Falstaff Chevaline warhead test launch Agency: RAE. Apogee: 131 km (81 mi).

1979 - 23:47 GMT - Launch Site: Cape Canaveral. Launch Complex: LC29. Launch Pad: LC29A. Launch Vehicle: Polaris A3. LV Configuration: Polaris A3 A3TK P-3.
Polaris A3 Chevaline warhead test launch Nation: USA. Agency: RN. Apogee: 1,000 km (600 mi).

Source: http://www.astronautix.com/thisday/april04.htm

Therefore, the object was not placed in the forest as the result of a test firing.

As you rightly said, the object was dropped vertically, with only minimum forward momentum. This suggests the object was dropped from a rotary wing aircraft traversing the forest at slow speed and an altitude of approx 150ft (the altitude has yet to be confirmed but any higher and the oject would probably have been completely destroyed on contact with the ground).

Problem: Polaris and similar were usually transported by road. If Chevaline was being stress tested on the 'ness but was en route to the twin bases for outward shipment to the US or elsewhere by aircraft, it would have made sense to transport it by road. It could have remained in the truck whilst the truck itself was loaded into a transport aircraft. This would have ensured absolute - or as near as dammit - secrecy. The landing site(s) is about one third of the way to the southern end of the 'ness and on a direct bearing to the pagodas.

Questions:
a. Why was the object being carried by helo?
b.Was it simply slung below the aircraft or was it boxed and in a cargo net?
c.Were similar nightime flights a regular occurrence?
d. Is the 'upside down' mushroom seen by the witness at Sudborne (on a track towards the north end of the 'ness) evidence of regular flights between the twin bases and the 'ness
e. Who ran the research on the 'ness in 1980? The US or the UK or both?
f. Was the 'upside down mushroom' simply something in a cargo net suspended below a helo
g. Did such research involve Chevaline, bearing in mind construction of the device took place elsewhere
h. If such flights were a regular occurrence were they flown by specialist aircrews who did not require clearance from the towers at either Bentwaters or Woodbridge. Instead, when normal flying had ceased, these flights were arranged locally on an 'as required basis', directly between a flyco in the crew office and his oppo on the 'ness. i.e. someone on the 'ness simply calls the crew office with a 'send a taxi' type request.

....and one last thought and this might sound daft - was it possible that the object was enclosed in heavyweight shrink wrap black plastic or similar, for protection during transportation?

[puddlepirate]

Dimensions of Polaris: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/uk/slbm/chevaline.html

weight of BUS (assuming this contains Chevaline): 700lbs (or 0.3 tons)
terminal velocity through gravity over 2.5 secs (assuming a height of 160ft): 64 ft/sec (approx 44mph).

Therefore impact force: speed in mph x weight in tons = 44 x 0.3 = 13.75 tons

Apologies to everyone who works in kgs/mtrs per sec.....and my maths is crap so I stand to be corrected. If the above it true then the object, if dropped from between 150 - 160 ft, hit the ground at a speed of 44mph and with a force of 13 tons. Quite a bang but much less force than an accident in a small car at 30mph. Although descent was slowed by the trees there must have been a noise associated with the incident. Perhaps the noise was heard and it was this that first attracted the attention of the SP - but it went unheard because the lights were seen - one of those pyschological things. The impact would probably have been sufficient to leave ground traces, especially if the forest floor was proteced from frost by pine needles etc and remained reasonably soft.

Notwithstanding my comment re shrink wrap black plastic, the object might have been encased in a missile nose cone

[Observer]

Puddle
You have raised many questions that are going to be difficult to answer.
From what i understand, the British Chevaline PAC unit was solely British and the assembly and testing of was run by the AWRE. There may have been one or two US technicians on site but that was more to do with its coupling technology to the main rocket body which of course was of US manufacture.

You are absolutely right concerning the transportation, it would be by truck and under armed guard.
Thinking about a helicopter for a moment, it does not have to be a USAF one, it could be a British one and don't forget that just up the road in Gt Yarmouth was Bristow Helicopters with some Sikorsky heavy lift choppers used for oil rig work. Sea Kng would not be capable in my opinion.
What i have also found out is that the PAC unit was so classified that we did not divulge all its systems even to the Americans which is a bit ironic in a way.
Was this a special case where they used a helicopter rather than a truck?
So far my money is on either a helicopter or a parachute descent.
Will get back to you later with some more.
Obs

[Observer]

Puddle
Just a quick one before i go out.
Start a file of all evidence supporting and circumstancial that fits the Chevaline theory and archive it for future reference. Leave it open for ammendments and additions.
This can then be PM'd to and fro when needed.
Obs

[puddlepirate]

I've had a word with an experienced landscape gardner re the tree and the mysterious colouring/contamination. If fuel were spilled in any quantitiy near the roots of the tree, the tree would take it in via the roots and whilst it might not kill the tree, it could well discolour it.

He has suggested that samples of the tree stump and earth samples be sent to the Environmental Studies dept of the University of Hertfordshire for analysis and identication of the contaminant.

If we can prove the contamination was indeed caused by hydrazine we will have a major leap forward.

[Observer]

Puddle
Are you referring to the post from Bee where he has some pictures of a tree that the bark has gone white?
I'm not sure if this was a recent discovery. If it was would spillage of some chemical I.E. Haydrazine then be relevant today 28 years after the event. We need to at least establish some time lines.
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[puddlepirate]

Obs

Yes, the images show a tree of approx 35 yrs of age. His (the landscape gardener) view was that the contamination started some years ago, as can be seen by the discolouration in the rings and continued for some time. The roots would extend to approximately the height of the tree or further - it all depends on when the roots find a moisture source - but a good average is a length equal to the height of the tree. Therefore, the tree could have been some distance from the contamination source. If the tree is in a forest, which this one was, then the tree roots entangle themselves below ground, so all the trees with roots in the contaminated area would show the same signs of contamination. Older trees, with longer roots would have been affected first, younger trees with shorter roots would have been affected last. It would seem that this was the only tree so affected, thus it is most likely that this was simply an infection of that tree alone. However, his brother is a chemist and he is going to seek his view on the discolouration of the tree and whether or not the blue colour could result from an ammonia based substance. Hydrazine is ammonia based.

From counting the growth rings it appears that the discolouration first started approx 28 to 30 years ago.

However, remember that is only a best guess based on colour photographs and not a scientific study. We need soil, bark and wood samples to be sent for analysis.

[Observer]

Puddle
I would have thought that the best place to start is by asking the Forestry commision about this tree.
They may have a simple answer which would save a lot of time and effort.
Obs

[puddlepirate]

The forestry commission might well have a simple answer but we don't want a simple answer we need to know if hydrazine was present, or at the very least that the soil contained an ammonia based contaminant. We need a definiitive answer. Was this discolouration due to hyrdrazone being ingested by the tree - or not.

We have too many blind alleys; we need hard evidence to support your theory.

We need also to establish if the USAF/RAF regularly transerred equipment between the twin bases and the 'ness using helo's. The landing site(s) were on a direct track between Woodbridge and Orfordness and it would have been quicker than using trucks. It is known that the 67th ARRS regularly practised with the Apollo capsule and that the capsule was moved by helo and dropped in the sea. Did they move other kit in the same way......

It would be useful to see a photo of the capsule slung underneath a helo in transit over the forest. There must have been some minimum height regulation to ensure the load cleared the trees and probably some safety regs that prevented the helo from overflying the town when carrying a suspended load.

[Observer]

Puddle
I see your point re the tree but you never know, the FC may have an answer so its still worth asking them.
If they don't know then our contamination theory is even stronger. Being flippant for a moment, they could say, oh yes, that tree, it had a bad case of the upper Mongolian bark rot. Or they could say we don't know.
Its also worth asking if they had it analysed. Its part of their job to keep trees desease free according to their web site. I never knew this but they have to report all suspected tree disease to the Government, Dutch Elm being one example.
Better to ask than not, no stone unturned as they say.

Is/was this tree any where near or on any of the alleged landing sites bearing in mind how unreliable those reports are? This area of the incident has always confused me.
Obs